بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Question:
What are the implications of Trump's wavering statements, from giving Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to a 5-day deadline, then a 10-day deadline, and his proposed 15-point plan? Also, there's the maneuvering of statements, mostly from Trump and a few from Iran. Then there's the Iranian television announcement that Iran rejects Trump's proposal. And then the results of all this... Will Trump achieve his goals of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and heavy missiles, thus forcing Iran back into the orbit of the US, or making it a dependent state, or will it become an independent state? And is it true that the Jewish entity, with America's approval, is seeking to expand its territory by annexing southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, as the Jewish defense minister stated? And how can Muslims not realize that the Islamic State—the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly Guided Caliphate)—is the one that will bring Trump and his ilk down, just as it did with the Roman emperors and the Persian kings, thus turning their plots against them, so that Islam and Muslims may be exalted, and kufr (disbelief) and the kuffar (disbelievers) may perish?
Answer:
To clarify the answers to the three-part question above, we will examine the following:
First: The first part of the question, concerning Trump's objective of making Iran its subservient state, a state that remains within its sphere of influence, or an independent state:
1- On Saturday morning, 28/2/2026, US President Trump posted a video on his Truth Social platform announcing that his forces in the Middle East had launched major combat operations in Iran. His close ally, Netanyahu, joined him. This revealed a hardening of positions within Iran, particularly within the Revolutionary Guard, regarding its relationship with America. This is because the Trump administration began demanding profound concessions from Iran to make it a completely dependent state, essentially removing it from its sphere of influence. The combination of assassinating leaders and forcing Iran to revolve around its orbit is highly unlikely. America did not launch the war on Iran to expel it from its orbit and leave it an independent state. Rather, it was confident of quickly subjugating Iran and making it a dependent state with the initial shock. This has only one meaning: the Trump administration was coordinating with leaders within the regime to assume control immediately after the initial shock, that is, after the assassination of the top resistance leaders. This did not happen! The Revolutionary Guard was able to control the situation. Therefore, Trump and the Jewish entity were astonished that the regime in Iran was cohesive and was launching missiles and drones with unprecedented ferocity and remarkable audacity. The Iranian strikes included the Jewish entity and American bases in the Gulf and the region. Trump said that some of the men he had hoped would assume power had been unintentionally killed! America thought that this violent Iranian response was the result of some leaders acting impulsively after the assassination of the Supreme Leader, and it waited for the appointment of a new Supreme Leader. However, after Mojtaba was appointed to succeed his father, and after a few weeks, the regime in Iran had stabilized under the control of those hostile to America, especially since its attacks had crossed all boundaries.
2- It appears that the calculations of America and the Jewish entity were flawed. When they launched their aggression against Iran, they set a short timeframe for the war, estimated at four days, with a massive, swift attack targeting its top leadership, nuclear facilities, and missile factories and launch sites. They assumed that once they struck the head of the regime and its top leaders, the second tier would surrender and submit to their terms, as happened in Venezuela when US forces kidnapped its president, and his vice president and her entourage surrendered to America. However, this did not happen in Iran after the assassination of its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and some of the regime's leaders. The Revolutionary Guard stood firm and decided to confront this aggression and attack the enemies. Consequently, a rift emerged between America and Iran, which had been within its sphere of influence. America sought to change this relationship; otherwise, it would not have launched this aggression and then authorized the Jewish entity to assassinate the most important figures in the regime, including the Supreme Leader. This indicates that America aimed to change the regime's policy from a satellite state to a dependent one, thus enabling it to dictate terms in negotiations with Iran. However, it failed to achieve this and decided to continue the war.
3- What confirms that America's goal was to change the Iranian regime's policies, and that it did not expect the regime to withstand the aggression and retaliate despite the killing of many of its top leaders, is the statement made by its Secretary of War, Hegseth, on 10/3/2026: "I can't say that we necessarily expected this to be exactly their reaction." Similarly, the New York Times reported on 12/3/2026, citing informed sources, that "Trump and other advisers remained confident that killing Iran's senior leadership would lead to more pragmatic leaders taking over who might bring an end to the war"—that is, surrender to America and accept its terms! When their hopes of a swift surrender proved unfounded, Trump began talking about two weeks, perhaps even four, to resolve the conflict. He wants to end the war in any way that allows him to appear victorious, not in a way that portrays him as defeated and humiliated, as happened with the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021. He wants to end the war before things escalate and negatively impact him and his party domestically, especially with midterm congressional elections coming up this fall, where a loss could affect the 2028 presidential election. Trump is trying to project a verbal victory! He told the American news website Axios on 11/3/2026: "there's practically nothing left to target” in Iran. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period." Trump is making statements that manipulate words as if he has won. This indicates that America's situation is precarious; it has not achieved its objectives quickly and without losses.
4- Trump then resorted to maneuvering by extending deadlines as a new strategy. On March 22, he issued a strict 48-hour ultimatum, then on March 23, he extended it by five days under the pretext of holding "constructive talks." On March 26, he announced a further ten-day extension, until 6/4/2026, along with other contradictory statements. His aim with this strategy is to exert psychological and political pressure on Iran to force it to surrender. These extensions may also be a cover for the military buildup that America will send to the region to launch a limited ground operation against Iran or Kharg Island. He has done this before in his previous attacks. He is maneuvering to send new forces, “it has been reported that the White House and the US Department of War are considering sending at least 10,000 additional combat troops to the Middle East in the coming days.” (MEBA News, 27/3/2026). In other words, these deadlines are deceptive maneuvers, as before.
5- Trump and his arrogance left nothing but what he calls peace through strength, i.e., negotiations under fire. He announced a 15-point plan that he presented to Iran through Pakistan to end the war. The plan consists of the following: (complete dismantling of accumulated nuclear capabilities, a pledge never to seek to possess nuclear weapons, a halt to uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, the handover of all enriched materials to the International Atomic Energy Agency within a short timeframe, the disabling and destruction of the Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow facilities, making all information inside Iran available to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran abandoning the "doctrine of proxy forces," stopping financial and military support for its allies in the region, keeping the Strait of Hormuz an open and free maritime passage for all, and addressing the issue of missiles later, so that restrictions are imposed on the number and range, and their use is limited to "legitimate defense" only...” (Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 25/03/2026). It is clear from the points of this plan that Trump's goal is to remove Iran from its position as a satellite state and transform it into a subservient state that implements all of America's dictates. Even the international press has described this as a document of surrender, a document that effectively transforms Iran into a subordinate state.
“But the plan put forward by the Trump administration via Pakistan amounts, in effect, to an instrument of surrender.” (Doha Institute, 26/3/2026). On March 24, 2026, Trump had a phone call with his favourite marshal, General Asim Munir, the Pakistani army chief, urging him to force Iran to accept the agreement on Trump's terms. He was unsuccessful. Iran rejected the plan on state television, a rejection that signified its refusal to become a "subordinate state." In response, Iran presented its own five-point plan: a halt to assassinations targeting Iranian officials, to be given guarantees against a new war against the country, payment of war reparations, an end to hostilities, and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz... (Euronews, 25/3/2026). While this Iranian offer did not address nuclear and missile programs, it did not align with the American 15-point plan. Thus, the negotiations remained at a standstill.
6-However, communication continued, albeit indirectly. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated in an interview with Al Jazeera on 31/3/2026, that "what is happening now is not direct negotiations or negotiations through intermediaries. He is receiving messages directly from the US envoy, Witkoff as before. This does not mean we are negotiating. There is no truth to the claim of negotiations with any specific party in Iran. Messages are being delivered through the Foreign Ministry, and there are contacts between security agencies... under the supervision of the National Security Council." He added, "We have not made any decision regarding negotiations. We have reservations about them, and our conditions for ending the war are clear. We will not accept a ceasefire; rather, we seek a complete cessation of hostilities, not only in Iran but throughout the entire region." He further stated, "Iran's conditions are a guarantee that the attacks will not be repeated and to be given compensation for the losses." This statement is ambiguous; there are contacts, but no negotiations! Nevertheless, it indicates that there are those within the Iranian regime who are willing to negotiate, and that the US could halt the war and begin negotiations at any moment, as communication between the US and the regime continues, as Araghchi mentioned. However, the Revolutionary Guard is more hardline than the regime's men, as it continues to strike at American interests in the Gulf and surrounding areas, and in the occupied territories, and refuses to negotiate.
7- Upon careful consideration of the preceding points, the conclusion regarding the first part of the question is as follows:
a- The Revolutionary Guard is striving to free Iran from American influence and prevent it from returning to the US orbit, instead establishing it as an independent state: “Iranian Revolutionary Guard: Any enemy action in the Strait of Hormuz will be met with a decisive response from the naval forces.” (MTV Lebanon, 4/3/2026). Iranian Revolutionary Guard spokesman Ibrahim Zolfaghari confirmed on Thursday that the war will continue until the enemies are humiliated and surrender, emphasizing that the strikes will continue at a harsher and wider pace.” (Al-Ayyam News, 2/4/2026). “The Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirmed on Wednesday that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to the country's enemies, while Trump stated that he would not consider a ceasefire unless it was reopened.” (Akhbar Al-Youm, 1/4/2026). “The Revolutionary Guard stated via its Telegram channel, “From now on, for every assassination, an American company will be destroyed.” (Al-Arabiya.net, 1/4/2026).
b- The Iranian regime's leaders waver between strength and weakness, and their greatest wish is for Iran to remain within the American sphere of influence, if they can. It wouldn't be a big deal for them if Iran became a subordinate state of America, like many other countries in the region. It seems Trump has the “right” people to talk to in Iran (US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday evening that he is "dealing with the right people in Iran," and when asked about those who are talking to the United States, Trump replied, "Because I don't want them killed." (France 24 (English), 23/3/2026). “A Pakistani source revealed to Reuters that Israel temporarily removed Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf from its assassination target list after Pakistan asked Washington not to target them, informing them that "if they are also eliminated, there will be no one left to talk to." (Al Jazeera Net, 26/3/2026).
c- As for Trump, his goal in this war is for Iran to be subservient to him, obeying his orders, controlling its oil and gas, and sharing influence in the Strait of Hormuz with him in a larger share! America wants to conduct the war in a manner that achieves the maximum possible of its goals. It can resort to escalation by striking energy facilities in Iran, even if Iran responds by targeting Gulf energy facilities and the price of a barrel of oil rises to the maximum possible. America can impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz without opening it, that is, preventing Iranian oil tankers or those that Iran allows from crossing the Arabian Sea.
* Trump's dreams of drawing Iran into subservience will not end as long as he has men within the regime... If these men seize power, Trump's dreams will be realized.
* However, if Trump's hopes of these men (to come to power) are dashed by the course of the war, and the Revolutionary Guard remains militarily steadfast and restores cohesion to the country, then Iran will move towards independence, as this war has severed the last thread that held Iran in America's orbit.
Second: The second part of the question concerns Lebanon and whether the Jewish entity seeks to annex the south up to the Litani River with American approval:
1- Regarding Lebanon, Al Jazeera reported on 26/3/2026, citing sources, that "Iran informed mediators of the necessity for Lebanon to be part of any ceasefire." On 24/3/2026, Israel Katz announced that his forces would control an area in southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, stating:
"The displaced residents will not return to south of the Litani before the security of the residents of northern Israel is guaranteed." He added: "His forces have blown up all five bridges over the Litani River used by Hezbollah... and will control the remaining bridges and establish a security zone extending to the Litani River." (Asharq Al-Awsat, 24/3/2026). On 19/3/2026, the Lebanese Prime Minister told CNN that he had sent a message to Trump: "I would like to assure President Trump of our readiness to enter into immediate negotiations with the Israeli side”.
2- Therefore, the statements of the Jewish entity indicate its intention to establish a buffer zone extending to the Litani River in southern Lebanon, and speak of emptying this area of its Lebanese inhabitants. This will not be easy for its army to achieve due to the resistance in the south. Furthermore, the Jewish entity is not capable of fighting except with the support of people after having severed the bond with Allah. Therefore, if America's aggression ends, they will stop automatically.
Third: The third part of the question regarding the Khilafah (Caliphate), which will restore glory to Islam and Muslims and humiliate disbelief and disbelievers:
1- There is no good in the rulers of the Muslim countries, as it is unlikely they will return to the right path. Therefore, reliance can only be placed on the Muslim Ummah when it establishes a state, and then they will be united in one state embodied in the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly Guided Caliphate) under an aware political leadership with a firm and unwavering will. Their deeds are recorded in the pages of history; they defeated the two greatest empires, Persia and Rome, in a number of years. They continued their conquests in the east and west of the earth until nations submitted to them, and massive armies were defeated before them, and the crowns of kings, emperors, and Lords fell at their feet. This is the fate of America, it will be crushed, Allah willing, and forced to close its bases and withdraw its troops across the Atlantic, dragging the tails of defeat and shame. Thus, the noses of Trump and his ilk will be rubbed in the dirt.
[قُل لِّلَّذِينَ كَفَرُواْ سَتُغْلَبُونَ وَتُحْشَرُونَ إِلَى جَهَنَّمَ وَبِئْسَ الْمِهَادُ]
“˹O Prophet!˺ Tell the disbelievers, “Soon you will be overpowered and driven to Hell—what an evil place to rest!”” [Aal-i-Imran: 12]
2- It is true that Iran is launching attacks on American military bases in the Gulf, and it is true that it has launched similar attacks against the Jewish entity. It is also true that these attacks possess a degree of power. However, the rulers of Iran cannot defeat America and turn it back upon itself unless the Khilafah (Caliphate) is established, supporting Allah and implementing His laws, so that it may be victorious by Allah's permission, illuminating the world with its justice and jihad, and Allah will honour it with His nasr (victory).
[إِنْ تَنْصُرُوا اللهَ يَنْصُرْكُمْ وَيُثَبِّتْ أَقْدَامَكُمْ]
“O believers! If you stand up for Allah, He will help you and make your steps firm” [Muhammad: 7]
Then America will be taught lesson after lesson until it realizes the truth. America is fighting Muslims today from their own lands and airports, using its agents to repel attacks on the Jewish entity. The Khilafah will storm these agents' strongholds and expel them decisively. The Khilafah will mobilize the Muslims along its path, increasing its strength until it becomes a raging torrent that reaches America's bases outside Muslim lands. A mighty flood will then be unleashed, destroying the thrones of rulers in its path, liberating Palestine, and utterly crushing the Jewish entity. This is easily attainable, Allah willing, even though many consider it a fantasy. The Ummah possesses a powerful, river-like creed and harbours deep hatred for America and the Jews due to the severity and magnitude of their oppression. These scenes of victory are not far off, Allah willing, when Allah (swt) grants His great victory. Perhaps what the Muslim Ummah will do afterward, and what the battlefields will proclaim, surpasses even the most eloquent description. Allah (swt) has established His way in this world, according to His words:
[وَكَانَ حَقّاً عَلَيْنَا نَصْرُ الْمُؤْمِنِينَ]
“For it is Our duty to help the believers” [Ar-Rum: 47].