Answer to Question
India, Pakistan, and the Ceasefire
(Translated)

Question:

Trump surprisingly announced yesterday, Saturday, in a post on his Truth Social platform, that “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire, “praising both countries for using common sense and great intelligence.” (Al Jazeera, 11/5/2025). Tensions had escalated between India and Pakistan following the attack on tourists in the Baisaran Valley in the Pahalgam area of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir on 22/4/2025, which killed 25 Indians and one Nepalese. On 23/4/2025, India announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty as part of a series of punitive measures against Pakistan. In response, Pakistan announced the suspension of the 1972 Shimla Agreement, which governs bilateral relations. On May 7th, India announced the implementation of a military operation called "Operation Sindhur"... then Pakistan responded... and now, as Trump announced that his mediation succeeded in achieving a ceasefire... what is the truth behind this tension and conflict? What exactly is the Indus Waters Treaty that India has temporarily suspended? Did America have a hand in starting the attack as well as stopping it?

Answer:

To clarify the answer to these questions, it is necessary to review the following facts:

1- The Bharatiya Janata Party, which came to power in India under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee from 1998 to 2004, and then returned to power under Narendra Modi in 2014 after 10 years of rule by the pro-British Congress Party, is a pro-American party as part of its Eurasian strategy, i.e., to confront and encircle China. It is clear that urgent American interests in the Far East were behind the Hindu supremacist Modi's victory in 2014, and it continues to support him. Narendra Modi has always served American interests, whether in the annexation of Kashmir in 2019, or in the border clashes he engaged in with China in 2014, 2017, and 2020, or in Afghanistan, or in the failure of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

2- After Modi came to power in India in 2014, the US effectively used India to increase pressure on China, encircle it, prevent it from controlling the surrounding regions, and confine it within its own territory. This is especially true since the US has declared economic war on China, with Trump imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese goods. Through these additional tariffs, Trump aims to weaken the Chinese economy. News has spread that major technology companies, such as iPhone, intend to move their factories to India as a result of the significant increase in tariffs. “Apple revealed that it plans to move the assembly of all iPhones sold in the United States to India, according to the Financial Times.” (Euro News, 26/4/2025). Thus, as part of its strategy to confront China, the US seeks to strengthen India's position as an economic and military power in the region.

3- This required, on the one hand, supporting India through military and economic means, and, on the other hand, resolving India's problems with Pakistan, both of whose regimes were loyal to and agents of America, so that India could focus on the Chinese side.

As for the first aspect, America supported India and its army by all means, such as transferring American nuclear technology to India. The issue of confronting China was strongly present during Trump's meeting with the Indian Prime Minister in Washington: “The two leaders also discussed strengthening the Quad security alliance in the Asia-Pacific region, which also includes Japan and Australia. India is scheduled to host the leaders of this group later this year, which is seen as a counterweight to China's growing military activity.” (Reuters, 14/2/2025).

The second aspect was the most prominent of these problems:

a- Pakistani forces on the border restrict the movement of Indian forces towards the Chinese front. Therefore, the United States pushed Pakistan to transfer its forces from the Indian border to the tribal areas of Waziristan to fight the Pakistani Taliban, to Balochistan to fight the Balochistan Liberation Army, and to the Afghan border. This is to allow India to move freely against China and move its armies to the Chinese border instead of deploying them on the Pakistani border. The United States then began demanding that Pakistan make concessions to India in order to facilitate India's withdrawal from the confrontation with Pakistan and place it in a confrontation with China. For this purpose, as we mentioned earlier, Pakistan transferred many of its military divisions from the border with India and employed them in internal fighting within Pakistan against jihadist groups... and began clashing with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

b- The conflict over Kashmir, which India annexed by its decision on 5/8/2019

We said in the Answer to a Question, 18/8/2019
(...Shortly after the events of September 11, 2001, the Bush administration focused on India. A large proportion of US actions were directed at bridging the military gap between India and China, according to US programs ... from these measures is America's nuclear agreement with India.

America saw that tensions over Kashmir between India and Pakistan affect the weakening of the confrontation of the Indian Subcontinent against China ... To overcome these tensions, the United States began the process of normalization between India and Pakistan, and the goal of normalization was to neutralize the Indian and Pakistani forces from fighting each other because of Kashmir, and to direct efforts toward cooperation with the United States eventually to restrict the rise of China. America believed that the annexation of Kashmir to India and America's pressure on the regime in Pakistan to prevent it from acting militarily and shifting the subject to dialogue will kill the issue and prevent military conflict between them, just as Abbas's authority in Palestine and the Arab countries around them not taking military action against the Jewish entity that is occupying and claiming what it wants of Palestine! Thus, Modi began with the plan to annex Jammu and Kashmir and change the population’s demography there, and then followed the decision taken by Modi on 5/8/2019 to repeal Article 370 of their Constitution on Kashmir...)

America thought that the annexation would make Muslims forget about Kashmir and that India and Pakistan would be free of problems between them, given that the two regimes are currently following the American line. America forgot, or pretended to forget, along with India, that Kashmir is in the hearts of Muslims and will return, Allah willing.

c- The problem of water sharing with Pakistan. India wanted to review the existing Indus Waters Treaty. India has long sought to review the Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation following nine years of negotiations, citing rapid population growth as a reason. Pakistan, however, rejects any renegotiation. Citing unnamed informed sources, “India Today” reported that: “India had halted the flow of water from the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River to Pakistan. The newspaper indicated that India also plans to cut off the flow of water from the Kishanganga Dam on the Jhelum River.” (Anadolu Agency, 5/5/2025). Given India's unilateral suspension of the treaty and its persistent demands for a review over the years, the Modi government's decision to suspend the treaty after the Pahalgam attack can be interpreted as an attempt to pressure Pakistan and force it to accept the review demand. (“In recent years, the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sought to renegotiate the treaty, and the two countries have attempted to settle some of their disputes at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague over the size of the water storage area at the Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower plants.” (Arabi21, 27/4/2025)).

It is worth noting that the Indus Waters Agreement (ISA) is a water allocation treaty between India and Pakistan. It was prepared and negotiated under the sponsership of the World Bank. The signing ceremony of this important agreement took place in Karachi on 19/9/1960. Pakistan was granted the rights to use the waters of three rivers in the western part of the Indus Basin (the Jhelum, the Chenab, and the Indus River itself), while India retained full control over the waters of the three eastern rivers (the Sutlej, the Beas, and the Ravi).

c- The jihadist movements in Kashmir were causing concern for India, so America wanted to provoke a fight there as a pretext for an Indian attack on the roots of those movements in Kashmir and to try to involve the Pakistani regime in the attack on those movements in Pakistan. This took place in two stages:

First: Fabricating an attack in Kashmir, attributing it to those movements, using it as a justification for a major military operation against the centers of those movements in Pakistan, as it claims... and against the roots of those movements in Kashmir and against the Muslims there, to kill or displace them under the pretext of their support for those movements, just as the Jews do in Gaza with their massacres of its people under the pretext of supporting the resistance. Then, embarrass the Pakistani regime by not supporting Kashmir because the attack was initiated by those movements!

Thus, India began, by ordering America to carry out this fabricated attack in Kashmir. The evidence for this is:

- The attack targeting tourists in the Baisaran Valley in the Pahalgam area of Indian-administered Kashmir on 22/4/2025, which India claims was carried out by a Pakistani-backed militant group, while Pakistan denies this. This attack occurred in Kashmir on 22/4/2025, while US Vice President J.D. Vance was in New Delhi. (US Vice President J.D. Vance arrived in India today, Monday, at the beginning of a four-day visit during which he will hold talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (Bahrain News Agency, 21/4/2025.) India took all of its initial measures against Pakistan, including suspending the Indus Treaty, while this American official was in New Delhi. This demonstrates America's coordination with India, and it is absolutely not acceptable to assume that all of this is a mere coincidence.

The Indian government's haste to blame Pakistan for the attack on April 22nd just minutes after it occurred and before any investigation or research had begun. This, despite Pakistan's demand for an international investigation, and the Indian media which was quick to point the finger at the TRF, a wing of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET), despite the group's denial of responsibility. All point to a "staged" operation. “The TRF claimed responsibility for the attack on social media, but later disavowed it, citing hacking as a pretext.” (24.net, 30/4/2025)

Then the second phase began, as India launched a missile attack on Pakistan on the evening of 6/5/2025. It did not limit itself to the Pakistani part of Kashmir, as usual, but also struck targets in the Punjab province. Pakistan did not respond by striking targets inside India, but rather limited itself to border clashes and the downing of Indian aircraft on the border. India tried to mitigate the impact of the attack on Pakistan, saying that it did not attack Pakistani army targets and only attacked “terrorists” (Al-Araby TV, 7/5/2025). Clashes continued to escalate between the two sides (violent clashes broke out along the Line of Control in Kashmir between Indian and Pakistani forces, and explosions were heard along the Line of Control in Kashmir amid reports of deaths, according to Indian media (Al-Arabiya, 9/5/2025). It admitted that 3 of its aircraft had been shot down, and announced the deaths of 7 civilians in Kashmir, which it controls, as a result of Pakistani attacks. While Pakistan stated that it shot down 5 Indian aircraft, including three French Rafale aircraft, as well as 25 drones manufactured by the Jewish entity, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said: ("We could have shot down 10 Indian fighter jets in response to the Indian attack on Pakistani positions, but army commanders exercised restraint and shot down 5 aircraft.” (Asharq News, 7/5/2025"). Pakistani army spokesman Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry announced that the army bombed 26 military installations and dozens of drones flew over major Indian cities, including the capital, New Delhi. (Sky News, 10/5/2025). It appears that Pakistan was capable of launching a large-scale attack, engaging in a confrontation with India, and defeating it. But it is linked to America, which does not allow it to carry out such a confrontation and inflict a crushing defeat on India, leading to the fall of its agent Modi. Although America was able to pressure its agent regime in Pakistan to be satisfied with a limited response to the Indian aggression, what appeared from this limited response indicates the heroism of the Muslim soldiers in Pakistan and the strength of their motivation to fight. Despite the collusion of the regime in Pakistan with America and the restrictions on the movement of the army,yet this Muslim army inflicted significant losses on the polytheist enemy, as we mentioned earlier. All of this prompted America to end the battle plan as it started it, and resort to stopping the aggression as it started it and change the battle plan to political and negotiation malice between the two regimes loyal to it, India and Pakistan. Thus achieving for India what it could not achieve for it through the military aggression.

4- Therefore, four days after the start of the Indian attack, on 10/5/2025, a ceasefire was announced under US orders. US President Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on 10/5/2025, "After a long night of talks led by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a comprehensive and immediate ceasefire. I congratulate both countries for using common sense and high intelligence. Thank you for your consideration of this matter." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the X platform on 10/5/2025, "The governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site." He added that he and Vice President J.D. Vance worked with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, and Indian and Pakistani National Security Advisors Ajit Doval and Asim Malik over the past two days to reach an agreement. In other words, America failed to appreciate the heroism of the Pakistani army, despite its leadership's loyalty for it, and feared that Modi would continue the fighting and lose his power instead of fulfilling America's demands in confronting China! Therefore, it ordered a halt to the war and resorted to political malice to achieve its goals through negotiations between two regimes loyal to it!

5- In conclusion, Hizb ut Tahrir warns Muslims in general and the people of Pakistan in particular that the political malice and negotiations taking place with the enemies of Islam and Muslims, especially the Hindu polytheists in India and the Jews in Palestine, these negotiations do not produce any good, especially if the kaffir colonialist America is the one running them, as is happening now. They are fighting Allah and His Messenger in every time and place. The Messenger of Allah (saw) informed us of fighting them and achieving victory over them, and in that is the great reward. Muslim narrated in his Sahih on the authority of Ibn Umar that the Prophet (saw) said: «لَتُقَاتِلُنَّ الْيَهُودَ فَلَتَقْتُلُنَّهُمْ...» “You will fight the Jews and kill them...” Ahmad and An-Nasa’i narrated on the authority of Thawban, the freed slave of the Messenger of Allah (saw), who said: The Messenger of Allah (saw) said:

«عِصَابَتَانِ مِنْ أُمَّتِي أَحْرَزَهُمَا اللهُ مِنَ النَّارِ؛ عِصَابَةٌ تَغْزُو الْهِنْدَ، وَعِصَابَةٌ تَكُونُ مَعَ عِيسَى ابْنِ مَرْيَمَ عَلَيْهِمَا السَّلَام»

“There are two groups of my Ummah whom Allah will free from the Fire: The group that invades India, and the group that will be with 'Isa bin Maryam, peace be upon him.”

So, fighting the Jews in Palestine and killing them, and invading India and the victory of Islam in them will inevitably happen, Allah willing. This is the saying of the Truthful, the Trusted One (saw). However, Allah (swt) has decreed that victory will not descend upon us from the sky, and His angels will carry it to us while we are sitting. Rather, we need to work, exert effort, and strive, and seek truthfulness and sincerity in what we do. This is how we should be. Then, Allah’s victory will come, without a doubt, by His permission, glory be to Him.

We are optimistic about the people of Pakistan, for it is a strong Islamic country, and the roots of Islam are deep in it, and the feelings of Islam are surging in it. Its army loves jihad in the way of Allah, and the aspirations of the Muslims there to establish the Khilafah are rising. It will not be long, Allah willing, before victory is achieved for the pioneer who does not lie to his people, and His saying (saw) will be fulfilled by establishing the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly-Guided Caliphate) after this oppressive rule that we live in. Ahmad narrated in his Musnad on the authority of Hudhayfah who said: The Messenger of Allah said:

«..ثُمَّ تَكُونُ مُلْكاً جَبْرِيَّةً فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةً عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ. ثُمَّ سَكَتَ»

“Then there will be oppressive rule and it will be as long as Allah wills it to be, then He will remove it when He wills to remove it, then there will be a Khilafah (Caliphate) on the method of Prophethood. Then he remained silent.” And on that day the believers will rejoice.

[وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ]

“And on that day the believers will rejoice * at the victory willed by Allah. He gives victory to whoever He wills. For He is the Almighty, Most Merciful” [Ar-Rum: 4-5]

17 Dhul Qi’dah 1446 AH
15/5/2025 CE